2026 is shaping up as another fascinating year for the Adelaide Hills property market. There are a number of dynamic factors at play that highlights the importance of having a sound strategy to make a move in this market. 

This State of the Market 2026 report details what we’re now seeing on the ground, here in the Hills. We’ll reveal exclusive Nitschke data from 2025, our predictions for 2026, how Adelaide Hills is performing vs. other regions in SA, suburbs to watch, and more. 

This report draws on our internal sales, leasing and buyer enquiry data to offer a view of the Adelaide Hills market that public resources won’t reveal.  

2025 was defined by rate conversations, less stock, rent increases and record-low vacancy rates, as well as the expansion of the First Homeowner Guarantee Scheme. 

At the end of 2025, Domain predicted a ‘soft landing’ for the Adelaide Hills in 2026 – with an expected annual price growth of 4% vs. the record highs (12-20%) we’ve seen since the pandemic. 

Here at Nitschke, 2025 was a strong year. We sold 117 properties, with a total sales value of $90,661,032 and had 396 properties under management.

Nitschke was also a three-time finalist at the REISA Awards – Residential Agency of the Year (Medium), Residential Property Management Agency of the Year (Medium), and Operational Leadership. 

Looking ahead, here are our property market predictions: 

• Two markets at play. Since the Federal Government expanded the First Home Guarantee Scheme up to a price cap of $900K in Mount Barker, the market up to that price has remained really strong. Even slightly above that is holding up, because people selling in the $700-900K range are buying in the $900K-$1M range. 

The Adelaide Hills is undersupplied with houses below $1 million. Anything under $800K is still very hot, and even up to $900K will remain strong. 

• Mortgage repayments account for 51% of the median income. When over half of a household’s income goes straight to the bank – and incomes aren’t growing at the same pace as house prices – the money isn’t there to push buyers higher. 

• Houses over $1M need a special strategy. Sellers should aim for quality over quantity. You might see five buyers, not 20. Private inspections will be back on the agenda. Buyers will want to inspect two, three, or four times. They will have a lot of questions. Time on market will extend. Expect a return to a traditional, balanced market. It might take two, three, or even four months to sell at that price point.

• The market will level out. Unless there’s a sudden spike in demand or government intervention, we don’t expect to see huge growth in 2026. We’re in an inflationary environment. It looks like interest rates won’t be cut and there might even be increases in 2026. Historically, when that happens, the real estate market slows down. 

• Rental market strained. Vacancy rates remain low because people who can’t afford to buy continue to rent, and we simply don’t have enough houses. This puts tenants in a tough position, but it could be good news for investors – who may see rents edge up a little more. 

Strategy is more important than ever before… and it starts 6-12 months before you’re planning your move.